U.S. Population Trends
Updated Nov 6, 2022
Project Duration: Oct 2022 - Nov 2022
Issue
America’s population exceeds 330 million, with a projected outlook of potentially reaching 400 million by mid-century. “Without a doubt, America’s population growth is a major factor affecting domestic demand for resources, including water, food and energy, and the worsening of the environment and climate change.
According to the CDC, it is estimated that the U.S. population will grow at a faster rate between 2020 - 2050 compared to the census in 2010 - 2020.
Approximate Population Growth
Objective
The question we would like to answer is: What is the main contributor to the U.S. population? To our knowledge, there are two factors contributing towards population, immigration and natural increase (difference in births and deaths). Then, let us form our hypothesis: Advanced medicine and technology has increased longevity and decreased death rates, making birth rates the primary contributor to the growing U.S. population. This is based on the following quote:
“...improvements in nutrition, water, medical care and other technological advances have contributed to a sharp decline in deaths while births continue to increase, resulting in population growth.”
U.S. Birth Trends
The data used was CDC birth data from between 2011 - 2020, as well as 2010 and 2020 census data. The census data was used to create the previous graph which approximates population growth between 2011 and 2020. Using the birth data between 2011 - 2020, I calculated and plotted the change in live births each year and change in percentage of births each year of the total births in this duration.
Change in Live Births Per Year
Change in Ratio of Live Births Each Year to Total Births in 2011 - 2020
Based on the graphs and according to the data calculations, we can see that 2014 is the only year with an increase in births from the previous year. On average, there is a decrease of 37,771 live births from each previous year.
To estimate the trajectory in 2050, I plotted the actual live births for each year, as well as the birth rate included in the data, along with an empty cell representing a value for the year 2050.
Yearly Birth Rate Prediction
Births Per Year Prediction
The trendlines in each graph display a clear decline in births and birth rate. They estimate that in 2050 there will be less than 3 million births as well as a birth rate of only 6.9, about half of 2011's birth rate of 12.69.
Birth rate - ratio of live births to total population [in that year], multiplied by 1000 - i.e. the frequency of births in a given population
But Population Still Increases Rapidly?
So, how does immigration affect the U.S. population? According to Joseph Chamie, we currently are at a historic high of 46.2 million immigrants in America, about 14.2 percent of the total U.S. population. He says the total immigrant population in 2030 is expected to be 54 million, about 15 percent, and by 2050 the total is expected to be 65 million, about 17 percent of the total population. Chamie also mentions that between July 2020 - July 2021, 62% of the contribution to the U.S. population was made up of immigration, with only the remaining 38% made up of natural increase.
“With the aging of America’s overall population and baby boomers reaching the oldest ages, deaths are expected to increase more rapidly than births. Consequently, by mid century immigration is expected to be contributing twice as many people to America’s population as natural increase.”
- Joseph Chamie (The Hill)
U.S. Population Factors
Conclusion
So, what is the primary population contributor? At the beginning of this post, the hypothesis was that birth rates are the primary contributor to the growing U.S. population. Now that the data has been calculated and analyzed, we may conclude that immigration is the primary contributor, while birth rates are not.
Although in previous years, birth rates had been high, they are no longer the primary contributor. As we have seen, birth rates have been decreasing by 37,771 each year on average between 2011 and 2020. On another note, immigration trends are expected to continue rising and making up larger portions of population than before.
Click here to view the data and scripts.
References
Bureau, U. S. C. (n.d.). Explore census data. Retrieved October 30, 2022, from
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics. National Vital Statistics System, Natality
on CDC WONDER Online Database. Data are from the Natality Records 2007-2020, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital statistics Cooperative Program. Accessed at http://wonder.cdc.gov/natality-current.html with requested records 2011-2020 on Oct 29, 2022 5:51:00 PM.
Joseph Chamie, opinion contributor. (2022, January 11). For the foreseeable future, immigration will fuel US population
growth. The Hill. Retrieved October 31, 2022, from https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/589178-for-the-foreseeable-future-immigration-will-fuel-us-population-growth/.
Quotes
Causes and consequences of overpopulation. Sustainability for all. (n.d.). Retrieved October 30, 2022,
Npg. (2022, April 13). Opinion piece offers valuable insight on population growth. Negative Population Growth. Retrieved
November 3, 2022, from https://npg.org/npg-commentary/em-041322.html.
Study session 2 population growth. Study Session 2 Population Growth: View as single page. (n.d.). Retrieved October 31,
World Health Organization. (n.d.). Indicator metadata registry details. World Health Organization. Retrieved October 31,
Recent Posts
Image Recognition Series Part 2:
XGBoost from Scratch